U.S. Energy Information Administration’s new Short-Term Energy Outlook was released on June 11.
Among the predictions, the EIA forecasts lower residential electricity bills this summer. U.S. Energy Information Administration Administrator Adam Sieminski released the following statement on the highlights:
‘EIA forecasts an 18-cent per gallon decline in the average monthly retail gasoline price between May and September, when the projected national average price is $3.43 per gallon. The largest price drops are expected in the Midwest states as refineries serving that region, which had been hit by planned and unplanned maintenance, return to operation. EIA’s projected gasoline price for the entire summer is 16 cents less than last summer.”
‘North America accounts for most of the of expected growth in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next two years because of continued higher output from U.S. tight oil formations in North Dakota and Texas and from Canadian oil sands. This supply boost will contribute to lower crude oil spot prices this year and next year, compared with 2012 levels.”
‘EIA projects slight increases in U.S. natural gas supply this year and in 2014, with growth in onshore production offsetting the decline in the Gulf of Mexico. Total natural gas consumption is expected to remain flat through 2014, with increases in industrial, residential, and commercial consumption offsetting declines in use of natural gas for power generation.”
‘Wholesale natural gas prices will remain near $4 for the rest of the summer, before increasing in the fourth quarter in response to colder temperatures. EIA expects the Henry Hub gas price will increase from an average of $2.75 per million Btu in 2012 to $3.92 this year and $4.10 next year.”
‘Electricity generation from wind is expected to increase by 19 percent this year, as generation capacity that came on line at the end of last year is available to produce electricity for all of 2013. Wind-powered generation is forecast to grow another 8 percent next year.”
‘Robust growth is expected in electricity generation from solar energy this year, although the total amount of solar power accounts for a small share of total U.S. generation.”
‘As a result of projected milder weather this summer compared with last year, EIA expects the typical residential electricity customer to use about 4.6 percent less electricity this summer, but the average electricity price will be 2.2 percent higher. As a result, the typical U.S. residential electric bill this summer should total $395, about $10 less than last summer and the lowest in four years. Results will vary with the weather across U.S. regions.”
‘U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise 2.6 percent this year compared with 2012, primarily due to the increased use of more price-competitive coal over natural gas for electricity generation.”
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